Evolution AB
The world's largest live casino provider — powering 80% of the global online live dealer market. A cash machine hiding in plain sight.
Business Overview
What does Evolution do, and how does it print money?
Imagine walking into a Las Vegas casino — the live dealers, the energy, the green felt tables — now put all of that inside your phone. That is exactly what Evolution AB built, and they are the undisputed kings of it.
Founded in 2006 in Riga, Latvia, Evolution is a B2B provider of live casino solutions. They do not operate casinos directly. Instead, they supply the live dealer technology, studios, and game content that powers online casinos worldwide. Think of them as the "Intel Inside" of live gambling — you may not see the brand, but it runs the show.
Their product portfolio spans Live Casino (blackjack, roulette, baccarat, game shows like Crazy Time and Monopoly Live), RNG slots (through brands like NetEnt and Red Tiger), and the rapidly growing first-person games category. Live Casino alone generates over 80% of total revenue.
With 22,000+ employees across studios in Georgia, Latvia, Canada, the US, and now Brazil, Evolution operates a global infrastructure that is extraordinarily hard to replicate.
Live Casino
Real dealers streamed 24/7 from professional studios. Commission-based revenue model on every bet.
RNG Slots & Games
Digital slots via NetEnt, Red Tiger, and Big Time Gaming. Scalable with near-zero marginal cost.
Game Shows
Branded entertainment like Crazy Time and Monopoly Live. The fastest-growing segment, pulling in non-traditional casino players.
Financial Fundamentals
Three tests every quality business must pass
Moat Analysis
Five dimensions that determine competitive durability
Brand Loyalty & Pricing Power
8/10Evolution raises commission fees annually and operators stay. Consistently awarded "Live Casino Supplier of the Year." 800+ operator partners trust the brand — that loyalty translates directly into pricing power.
High Barriers to Entry
9/10Replicating Evolution requires billions in studio infrastructure, regulatory licenses in 20+ jurisdictions, proprietary streaming technology, and years of trust-building with operators. No new entrant has succeeded in a decade.
High Switching Costs
8/10Operators integrate Evolution deeply into their platforms — APIs, back-end systems, player data, and compliance frameworks. Switching means rebuilding integrations, retraining staff, and risking downtime during migration.
Network Effect
6/10More operators attract more players, which attracts more operators. But the B2B model limits direct network effects compared to consumer platforms. The effect is moderate — present but not the primary moat driver.
Economies of Scale
9/101,700+ tables, 22,000 employees, studios on four continents. Scale drives 66% EBITDA margins — nearly 3x competitor Playtech's 23%. Each additional table costs less to operate, widening the margin advantage.
Bull & Bear Thesis
Both sides of the coin — so you can decide for yourself
Bull Case
Bear Case
Growth Drivers
Where the next wave of revenue comes from
North America Expansion
Live in multiple US states with plans to add 10+ new states/provinces by end of 2025. Launched Ezugi as a second brand in the US. North America posted record revenues and is still in early innings of adoption.
Latin America & Brazil
Brazil regulated iGaming in January 2025 and Evolution was the first licensed supplier. Opened a studio in São Paulo. LatAm posted all-time record revenues with Brazil as the primary growth catalyst.
Product Innovation
110+ new games planned for 2026 including Monopoly-branded game shows, hybrid live/RNG formats, and the new Sneaky Slots studio. The Hasbro partnership unlocks IP-driven engagement at massive scale.
Sports Betting Integration
Acquired sportsbook technology in 2024 to offer an integrated casino-sports product. Cross-selling live casino to the massive sports betting audience opens a new customer acquisition channel.
Investment Risks
Every investment has risks — here is what could go wrong
Asia Cybercrime & Piracy
Ongoing stream hijacking and cyberattacks have impaired Asian revenues by ~10%. The CEO acknowledged this is "worse than expected." If unresolved, Asia could shift from profit engine to structural headwind.
High SeverityRegulatory Crackdowns
61% of revenue from unregulated markets as of Q3 2024. European revenues are already declining due to ring-fencing. India is in active regulatory discussions. A sudden ban in any key market could hurt.
High SeverityCustomer Concentration
Top 5 customers accounted for ~39% of revenue (down from 46%). Losing a single major operator could materially impact earnings. However, this concentration has been declining, which is a positive trend.
Medium SeverityCompetitive Erosion
Pragmatic Play has rapidly grown to ~25% market share. They are winning partnerships with tier-1 operators and expanding into new markets. Evolution's dominance is being challenged for the first time.
Medium SeverityValuation & Intrinsic Value
What is this business actually worth?
As of 16 February 2026, Evolution AB (EVVTY) is trading at approximately 58% below its estimated intrinsic value based on our discounted cash flow model. The stock is at its lowest valuation in 5 years with an EV/EBITDA of just ~7x — a level that prices in near worst-case assumptions for a business generating €1B+ in annual free cash flow.
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This research is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The information presented is based on publicly available data and our independent analysis. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.